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美国竞选要地新罕布什尔初选态势

更新时间:2011-4-22 22:33:29 来源:本站原创 作者:佚名

Voters will go the polls Tuesday in the northeastern U.S. state of New Hampshire for America's first presidential primary. Public opinion polls show the races for the Democratic and Republican nominations are extraordinarily close, following more than a year of campaigning by a large field of candidates.

 

新罕布什尔州的选民星期二就要开始进行美国首次总统初选。民意调查表明,在人数众多的候选人历经一年多的竞选活动之后,民主党和共和党两党争夺本党候选人提名的竞争都是势均力敌。

Small, picturesque towns like Exeter dot the landscape here in New Hampshire, best known as the first U.S. state where Americans go to the polls to select the Republican and Democratic Party's nominees.

 

像埃克塞特这样风景如画的小镇点缀着新罕布什尔州的风景。新罕布什尔州因为是美国选民投票选举共和党和民主党美国总统大选提名的候选人的头一个州而闻名。

The beautiful, snow-covered landscape provides a pastoral backdrop for a primary election that frequently propels political candidates toward their party's nomination for president.

 

大雪覆盖的美丽景色给总统初选提供了一个田园背景。在这个州的总统初选常常会使政治候选人赢得他们所在党派的总统大选的提名。

"The value of the early primaries is precisely to have a slingshot effect, to propel you towards victory in the later primaries," said Allan Lichtman, a professor and presidential historian at American University in Washington.

 

华盛顿美利坚大学研究总统选举的历史学家、艾伦.利希特曼教授说:“早期初选的价值就象是一种弹弓效应,推动你在以后的初选中获胜。”

Victories in the recent Iowa caucuses by the Democratic Senator from Illinois, Barack Obama, and the former Republican governor of Arkansas, Mike Huckabee, have reshaped the race for the White House.

 

来自伊利诺伊州的民主党参议员巴拉克.奥巴马和阿肯色州的前共和党州长迈克.赫卡比最近在爱奥华州取得的胜利改变了问鼎白宫竞选的局面。

They defeated national frontrunners New York Democratic Senator and former first lady Hillary Clinton and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, a Republican.

 

巴拉克.奥巴马和迈克.赫卡比击败了在全国处于领先地位的纽约州民主党参议员、前第一夫人希拉里.克林顿和前纽约市长、共和党人鲁迪.朱利亚尼。

Unlike voters in larger states with later primaries, voters here in New Hampshire have the opportunity to meet with the candidates in relatively small groups and ask them questions about important issues.

 

与在较大的州晚些时候举行初选的选民不同的是,新罕布什尔州的选民有机会在较小规模的会议上同候选人会面,并就重要问题向他们提问。

"These people have been studying," said Stephen Hess, a senior fellow and political analyst at the Brookings Institution. "They almost feel that they can not vote for the candidate unless they have personally looked him in his eye and shook his hand."

 

美国布鲁斯金研究所的资深研究员、政治分析员斯蒂芬.赫斯说:“这些选民一直在研究。他们觉得,除非亲眼见到候选人并同候选人握手,他们不会把票投给候选人。”

About 45 percent of New Hampshire's voters are independent, and it is often difficult to predict how they will vote in the primary.

 

新罕布什尔州大约45%的选民是独立选民,通常很难预测这些选民会在初选中把票投 给哪位候选人。

"Independents play a huge role in the New Hampshire primary because they can choose to vote in either the Republican or Democratic primaries," said historian Allan Lichtman. "They could be a large segment of the vote in a very small state and a very independent-minded state like New Hampshire."

 

研究总统选举的历史学家艾伦.利希特曼说:“独立选民在新罕布什尔州的初选中起很大作用,因为他们可以选择把选票投给任何一位参加初选的共和党或者民主党人。在新罕布什尔州这样一个很小但是非常有独立意识的州,独立选民可能会在选举中占很大一部份。”

Here in Exeter two of those independent voters are Linda and John Noon, who have just moved back home after living abroad in Europe.

 

琳达。努恩和约翰。努恩是两名刚刚结束在欧洲的生活回到家乡的埃克塞特的独立选民。

"Well I am interested to hear what the candidates have to say because I have been living overseas so I need to hear more information. But I am interested in what their ideas are on health care and the war [in Iraq], mainly," they said.

 

他们说:“我对候选人必须要说的话很感兴趣,因为我一直在海外生活,所以我需要听到更多的信息。但是我主要对候选人在医疗和伊拉克战争上的观点感兴趣。”

This husband and wife say they are both still undecided about who to vote for, but Mr. Noon says he is leaning toward Barack Obama.

 

这对夫妻说,他们都还没有决定把票投给谁,但是努恩先生表示,他更倾向于把选票投给巴拉克.奥巴马。

"I think of him as someone like [President John F.] Kennedy who was kind of an underdog. I am ready for a change, and I would like to see someone in there who is different," they said.

 

他说:“我认为他是像肯尼迪总统一样的处于劣势的一方。我愿意改变现状,我希望看到的候选人是跟以前的总统不同的。”

Polls show Obama, who is campaigning to be the first black man elected as America's president, is succeeding in identifying himself as the Democratic candidate most likely to bring change to policies in Washington.

 

民意调查表明,努力竞选成为美国历史上第一位黑人总统的巴拉克.奥巴马,成功地把自己定位为最有可能给华盛顿的政策带来改变的民主党候选人。

"Certainly if Obama wins here on Tuesday then it is going to be on to states like South Carolina where there is a large African-American population," said Dante Scala, a professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire. "If African-American voters look and see that Obama is for real, that a black candidate can win in two of the whitest states in the country, they are going to take Obama seriously and get on the bandwagon. If that happens, then it is tough to see where Hillary Clinton is going to break through."

 

“当然,如果奥巴马星期二在新罕布什尔州的初选中获胜,那么接下来在像南卡罗莱纳这样非洲裔美国人很多的州,如果非洲裔美国人选民看到奥巴马在美国白人最多的州都能够获胜,那么他们会认真考虑奥巴马,支持有获胜把握的竞选人。如果果真如此,那么很难看到希拉里.克林顿在哪里取得突破。”

For the Republicans, Mike Huckabee, a former Baptist preacher, stunned many analysts by winning the Iowa caucuses.

 

曾任基督教浸礼会传教士的共和党人迈克.赫卡比在爱奥华州美国总统大选的共和党党内预选的提名中获胜,这使得许多分析人士大感意外。

In New Hampshire, polls say Huckabee currently trails former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and Arizona Senator John McCain.

 

新罕布什尔州的民意调查表明,迈克.赫卡比目前紧追前马萨诸塞州州长米特.罗姆尼和亚利桑那参议员约翰.麦凯恩。

"What is at stake here in New Hampshire on the Republican side is really the contest to be the anti-Huckabee candidate, and John McCain really wants to get in that position and he can with a victory in New Hampshire," said Scala.

 

政治分析员丹蒂.斯卡拉说:“现在对新罕布什尔州的共和党阵营极为关键的是,谁能够成为对抗迈克.赫卡比的候选人。约翰.麦凯恩非常希望成为那个人,如果他在新罕布什尔州获胜的话,他可以得到那个位置。”

So here in Exeter and across New Hampshire voters are preparing to select their candidates for president.

 

埃克塞特和新罕布什尔州其它地区的选民正准备选出总统候选人。

Winning New Hampshire is no guarantee a politician will win his or her party's nomination, but a victory here will provide a boost for any candidate in this year's highly competitive race for the White House.

 

在新罕布什尔州获胜并不能保证在党内提名中获胜,但是在新罕布什尔州获胜将给激烈角逐2008年美国总统大选提名的候选人起到鼓舞作用。

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