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高失业率拖累世界经济增长

更新时间:2011-4-29 15:05:20 来源:本站原创 作者:佚名

A report by the U.N. Conference on Trade and Development says the recovery of the world economy is continuing to lose momentum and this will lead to weaker global economic growth.

 

联合国贸易和发展会议星期二发表报告说,世界经济复苏继续失去动力,这将导致较弱的全球经济复苏。

The U.N. report forecasts moderate economic growth in 2011 and 2012 of between three and 3.5 percent. It says this is too low to recover from job loss triggered by the economic crisis.

 

联合国贸发会议的报告预计,2011和2012年,全球经济将温和增长,增长率3%-3.5%。如此慢的增长速度难以使在经济危机中失去工作的人们重新找到工作。

UNCTAD economist in the Division on Globalization and Development Strategies, Alfredo Calcagno, says developed countries are expected to grow about two percent and this will be a drag on the world economy.

 

联合国贸发会议全球化发展战略部的经济学家阿尔弗雷德·卡尔卡哥诺(Alfredo Calcagno)说,发达国家的增长率预计只有大约2%,这对整个世界经济造成拖累。

“Why developed economies are growing so slowly, well basically because of persistent high unemployment and low real wages compounded with too early withdrawal of fiscal stimulus,” Calcagno states. “The report insists that one of the main problems at present, and especially in developed economies is that of employment. The jobs that have been destroyed during the crisis of 2008 and 2009, will take several years to be recovered.”

 

他说:“发达经济体的发展为什么这么慢?主要因为失业率居高不下,真实工资太低,再加上财政刺激措施撤出得太早。报告指出,当前最重要的问题之一,尤其是在发达经济体,是就业问题。那些在2008和2009年的危机中丧失的工作机会,将需要好几年的时间才能复原。”

The report finds the United States has been on the mend from its longest and deepest recession since World War II. Yet, it says the pace of recovery has been the weakest in the country’s post-recession experience.

 

报告说,美国在经历了二战以来最长最深的经济衰退之后,情况正在好转。不过,跟以往经济衰退后的复苏相比,这一次的复苏步伐是最弱的。

It notes the United States will grow by less than three percent, not enough to make much of a dent in unemployment rates. It predicts recovering jobs lost during the crisis would take at least another four years.

 

联合国贸发会议说,美国的经济增长率将不到3%,根本不足以把失业率降低一点点。美国至少还需要四年的时间才能把经济危机中失去的就业机会找回来。

As bad as this is, UNCTAD Division of globalization and Development Strategies Director Heiner Flassbeck says the growth prospects for Europe and Japan are even dimmer.

 

尽管形势已经十分糟糕,联合国贸发会议全球化发展战略部主任福拉斯贝克(Heiner Flassbeck)说,欧洲和日本的增长前景更加暗淡。

He says the economic outlook is uncertain and risks of falling back into stagnation are great.

 

他表示,经济前景充满了不确定性,而且重新陷入经济停滞的风险很大。

“The three big regions-Japan, Europe and the United States have not yet overcome the difficulties fully. And, given the fact that they are withdrawing their policy stimulus, there is indeed an enormous danger that the recovery will stall in the course of this year,” Flassbeck said. “And, then the question has to be asked, 'What are then the measures that we have at hand to restart the economy again if this is going to happen because the recovery is not sustainable, not self-sustaining?"

 

福拉斯贝克说:“日本、欧洲和美国这三大区域还没有完全克服困难。考虑到他们都在撤出政策性刺激措施,因此经济复苏在今年出现刹车的危险确实非常大。现在需要提出的问题是:‘由于复苏不能持续,难以自己支撑, 如果真的出现停滞,我们到底有什么办法来重新启动经济?’”

Flassbeck says a few bright spots are to be found in Asia, mainly in China and India. But, even there, he says the bright spots are dimming. He warns these countries will not be able to push the world economy out of a renewed slump.

 

福拉斯贝克指出,世界经济中仅有的几个亮点都在亚洲,主要在中国和印度。然而即使在那里,这些亮点也都在失去光泽。他警告说,这些亚洲国家并没有能力推动世界经济摆脱一场新的衰退。

The report says growth in Latin America is projected to remain relatively strong at around four percent. It finds economic recovery has been solid in most of Africa, noting the rebound is expected to push through at about five percent in 2011 and 2012.

 

联合国贸发会议的报告说,拉丁美洲的经济增长预计将保持强劲,增长率大约在4%左右。在非洲的大部分地区,经济复苏也很坚实,2011和2012年的增长率预计会维持在5%上下。

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