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奥巴马将竞选连任下届总统

更新时间:2011-4-29 21:43:30 来源:本站原创 作者:佚名

President Barack Obama made it official Monday, he is off and running for re-election next year. The president’s re-election prospects have improved in recent months, but there are still many questions about the state of the domestic economy and the growing number of foreign policy challenges facing the president in the months ahead.

 

奥巴马总统4月4日正式宣布,他开始竞选连任下届总统。奥巴马竞选连任的前景最近几个月来有所改善,但是在今后的日子里,国内经济中的许多问题以及越来越多的外交政策挑战将摆在奥巴马的面前。

In keeping with the latest means of political communication, the president’s re-election was launched via email and text messages to millions of grassroots supporters.

 

奥巴马总统竞选连任的消息通过电子邮件和手机短信发给成百上千万草根支持者。这符合当代最新的政治通讯潮流。

It also included the release of a campaign video with Obama supporters urging voters to focus on next year’s election. “We are not leaving it up to chance, we are not leaving it up to, oh, you know, 'He is the incumbent.' It is an election that we have to win,” he said.

 

与此同时还发出了一段竞选活动视频,视频中奥巴马的支持者敦促选民关注明年的选举。奥巴马总统在其中说到:“我们不能靠运气,我们不能靠,你们知道,靠‘他是现任总统’的优势。这是我们必须要赢的选举。”

President Obama’s political standing has improved a bit since last November when Republicans won a resounding victory in midterm congressional elections by retaking control of the House of Representatives and reducing the Democratic majority in the Senate.

 

自去年11月共和党人赢得国会中期选举,重新夺得众议院的控制权,并减少了民主党在参议院的多数席位之后,奥巴马总统的政治声望有所改善。

For the most part, the president remains at about 50 percent approval in most public-opinion polls and most experts give Mr. Obama a slight advantage in next year’s race against a yet to be determined Republican opponent.

 

奥巴马总统在大多数民调中仍然保持着大约百分之50的支持度,绝大多数专家认为奥巴马明年对阵尚未确定的共和党对手时,会稍占优势。

But Quinnipiac University pollster Peter Brown has noticed some slippage in the president’s approval rating of late and says voters will begin to pay more attention to the campaign in the months ahead. “But it is a crucial point. If he were to continue to go lower, for instance if his (poll) numbers dropped into the 30’s, that would be very significant and that would obviously be an increasing problem for him as he looks towards his re-election campaign,” he said.

 

但是昆尼皮亚克大学的民调专家彼得·布朗注意到,最近奥巴马总统的支持度稍有下滑。他说,选民们今后会更多关注竞选活动,“这是一个重要关口。假如他的支持度继续走低,比如说民调支持度降到百分之30多,那将是非常显著的下滑,对他的竞选连任,显然将成为一个越来越严重的问题。”

Presidential poll ratings often go hand-in-hand with how voters feel about the state of the domestic economy. The Obama White House got some good news last week as the nation’s unemployment rate continues to slowly drop, now down to 8.8 percent, a two year low.

 

在任总统的民调分数通常和选民对国内经济状况的感受紧密相联。白宫最近有一些好消息,美国失业率持续缓慢下降,3月底4月初降至百分之8.8,为两年来最低。

“The next election will, more than anything else, depend on employment in the United States,” said Stephen Hess, a presidential scholar at the Brookings Institution in Washington.

 

华盛顿智库布鲁金斯学会总统学者史蒂芬·海斯说:“下一次大选,最首要的胜选因素将取决于美国的就业状况。”

University of Virginia expert Larry Sabato says the single most important issue in next year’s election will be how voters rate Mr. Obama on economic issues. “In the end, voters do not ask why the economy is good or bad. They simply give credit or blame to the incumbent president,” he said.

 

维吉尼亚大学专家拉里·萨巴托也认为,明年大选一个最重要的问题就是选民们对奥巴马解决经济问题的评价。他说:“最终,选民们不会问经济好或者坏的原因。他们只会把经济好坏都归因于现任总统。”

But foreign policy could play a major role as well, given the current situation in Libya, the continuing turmoil in the Middle East generally and the expected draw down of some U.S. forces from Afghanistan later this year.

 

不过,考虑到目前的利比亚局势、中东整体持续动乱,以及今年晚些时候预计将从阿富汗撤回一些美军等因素,外交政策也会在大选中起到重要的作用。

Political analyst Charlie Cook says Mr. Obama wants to model his re-election effort more along the lines of former President Ronald Reagan’s successful 1984 re-election campaign and avoid the fate of former President Jimmy Carter, who lost his bid for re-election in 1980.

 

政治分析人士查理·库克表示,奥巴马希望他竞选连任的努力按照前总统里根1984年成功连任的路子去走,避免在1980年寻求连任失败的前总统卡特的命运。

“What Obama has to fear is being President Carter where world events just spiral out of control and he seemed just completely helpless. And what he has to aspire to is a (former President Ronald) Reagan who had some setbacks along the way, certainly, but enjoyed a very strong economy and rebound and was able to run on ‘Morning in America’ (restoring American pride),” Cook said.

 

他说:“奥巴马一定不能成为卡特第二,当年世界事务失控,卡特看上去完全无能为力。他肯定渴望象总统里根那样。里根在竞选中当然遇到过挫折,但是经济增长强劲,选情峰回路转,能够在早安美国节目中恢复美国人的自豪感。”

More than a dozen Republicans are considering a run for president next year, but none has officially announced their candidacy. Expert Larry Sabato says that gives the president a bit of an early advantage in terms of media coverage and fundraising.

 

目前有十几名共和党人正在考虑明年参选,但是还没有人正式宣布。专家拉里·萨巴托指出,这就让奥巴马总统在媒体报导和筹集竞选资金方面占了一些先发优势。

“(Former Massachusetts) Governor Romney, former Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota, even more minor candidates like former Senator Rick Santorum or Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, they seem to be out there doing a lot of campaigning and that matters. But whether the Republican Party ends up with a nominee who can actually win is yet to be determined, and most of the determination will be made by the economy and not the Republican electorate,” Sabato said

 

他说:“前麻萨诸塞州州长罗姆尼、前明尼苏达州州长保伦提,甚至一些知名度更小的候选人,像是前参议员桑托伦或者是众议员巴赫曼等,他们看来都在那里做着很多竞选工作,这当然很重要。但是共和党是否能够推举出一位最终赢得大选的候选人,这还有待决定,而最重要的决定因素将是经济,而非共和党选民。”

History suggests President Obama is a favorite for re-election, but by no means a sure thing. Since World War II only two elected U.S. presidents have lost re-election - Jimmy Carter in 1980 and George H.W. Bush in 1992.

 

从历届竞选来看,奥巴马有希望获得连任,但这决不是十拿九稳的事情。二战以来,只有两位美国总统输掉了连任的选战,一位是1980年的卡特总统,还有一位是1992年的老布什总统。

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